However, at 13 . to incorporate the statistic into your presentation at any time. The materials are designed for academic use and should not be relied on for commercial or business decisions. All properties in the NPI have been acquired, at least in part, on behalf of tax-exempt institutional investors - the great majority being pension funds. Show publisher information The original version of the story omitted the full name and title for Jeb Belford, a managing director at Clarion Partners. Want more farmland news? This information is proprietary and may not be reported in whole or in part without written permission. One caution with that index is when it started in 1991 U.S. cropland was at rock bottom. First, the property must be classified as one of the following property types: office, retail, industrial, apartment, or hotel. NCREIF Property Index. The NPI reflects investment performance for more than 9,200 commercial properties, totaling approximately $700 billion in market value. Thepermanent croplandsub-index posted total annual returns of 3.06% in 2021 comprised of positive income returns of 4.43% but negative appreciation returns of -1.32%. Overall all farmland (total) returned 3.08% for the year; permanent . For a newly developed property, operating is defined as reaching 60% occupancy or having been available for occupancy for a year from its certificate of occupancy. That pales in comparison to the 18.4 percent return in the S&P 500 but beats the -5.12 percent return on the Nareit All Equity REIT Index. The NCREIF Farmland Index is the trusted data source of institutional investors for U.S. farmland income and appreciation Use Ask Statista Research Service. The index, called the NCREIF Farmland Index, is maintained by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries. All ten NCREIF regions registered positive total returns in the second quarter. Please bear with me as I try to make this section more user friendly and check back as we will be making more changes. Rolling 4-Quarter Permanent Cropland Returns. In NCREIF's ~47-year history, this is the highest return for ANY PROPERTY TYPE . Apartments were next with 24% followed by Office and Retail with 7%. For more information on our data practices and how to exercise your privacy rights, please see our Privacy Policy. Source: NCREIF as of September 30, 2020 Exhibit 1: NPI Write-Ups vs. Properties exit the NPI when assets are sold or otherwise leave the database. The conference begins at 8:30 a.m. at ABC Recovery at 44-359 Palm St. in Indio. 1 The cap (capitalization) rate, a measure of real estate returns, is a property's annual net operating income as a percentage of its market value. Continued Disparity Across Property Sectors. The top-performingregions for Annual Crops this quarter were the Pacific West and the Southern Plains, producing returns of 3.77% and 2.46%, respectively, for the quarter.For Permanent Crops, the Pacific West Region To jump to a category, click on the title; to return, click on "Back to Top" below each exhibit. The return is the change in value plus the cash flow received for the . Of note, the Pacific West total annual return for annual cropland was 7.68%. Is now the time to make a contrarian play and buy real estate that may be poised for a rebound as the economy recovers? By clicking on I accept, you consent to our Privacy Policy. The increase in total return this quarter is due to improved performance of all property types, although industrial (mainly warehouse) properties continued to out shadow the other property types. Sign up to receive emails from IREI. Commercial Real Estate, LANtel. The uneven relationship between interest rates and farmland returns Periodic average NCREIF Farmland Index returns and interest rates (%) Source: FRED, as of March 23, 2022. You need a Statista Account for unlimited access. Although rental income did hold up better than some had feared, the NCREIF Property Index (NPI) shows a total annual return of 1.6 percent, while the NCREIF Openend Diversified Core Equity Index (NFI-ODCE) posted an annual return of 1.2 percent. Traders said that the recent sell-off may have sparked some buying interest from importers that had viewed U.S. corn as too expensive when compared to supplies from other countries. The series is an appraisal-based system, with market values determined by quarterly appraisals undertaken to ensure assets are marked to market. From a commodity standpoint, pistachio properties posted the highest total returns in 2021 at 9.39% as well as both the highest income (6.46%) and appreciation returns (2.78%) compared to other permanent crops. However, transitioning into the post-GFC period (2009-2021), both interest rates and farmland returns decline on an annual average basis. Appreciation returns were positive in every region of this sub-index in 2021. NCREIF Farmland Index posted the Highest Total Returns in Over 5 years. It compares those returns (on a 1-year basis) to the annualized return of each category since inception. The objective of the NPI is to provide a historical measurement of property-level returns to increase the understanding of, and lend credibility to, real estate as an institutional investment asset class. Thepermanent croplandsub-index posted total annual returns of 3.06% in 2021 comprised of positive income returns of 4.43% but negative appreciation returns of -1.32%. This is the highest quarterly return since fourth quarter 2005, when the return was 5.48 percent. Register in seconds and access exclusive features. These materials are neither edited nor endorsed by the UW and, as such, should not be so attributed. Both NCREIF indexes show a rise in returns for the first quarter of 2020, despite wide-spread business closures, followed by a decline and then a modest recovery. While this total return is over two times higher than the total return generated in the prior year, permanent cropland continues to lag the double digit average annualized returns observed in the past 10 years (12.17%) and 20 years (14.42%). The NCREIF Farmland Index includes data provided by the following firms: Prudential Agricultural Investments, Hancock Agricultural Investments, Westchester Group Investment Management, UBS Farmland Investors LLC, Gladstone Land Corporation, US Agriculture, Cottonwood Ag Management, and Farmland Opportunity. Access to this and all other statistics on 80,000 topics from, Show sources information The appreciation return spikes continue to be driven by record increases in industrial properties. Informa PLC's registered office is 5 Howick Place, London SW1P 1WG. There are currently 26 private funds that are included in the index. In terms of benchmarking or monitoring institutional real estate performance, the public side is most often tracked the the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT), while the private side is represented by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF). We use cookies and other tracking technologies to personalize your user experience on our site and perform site analytics. Profit from the additional features of your individual account. We deliver the right information to the right person at the right time. Annual cropland outperformed on appreciation for the quarter, with annual appreciation of 1.42% versus permanent cropland appreciation of 0.03%. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/376854/ncreif-index-returns-usa/, Returns of the national NCREIF Property Index in the United States from 1998 to 2022, Available to download in PNG, PDF, XLS format, Commercial real estate investment value in the U.S. 2019-2022, by property type, Change in commercial property investment volumes U.S. 2020-2022, by asset class, Most attractive property sectors for investment in the Americas 2017-2022, Leading real estate companies worldwide 2022, by market value, National NCREIF Property Index returns in the U.S. 1998-2022, Volume of space leased in the U.S. Q2 2021, by industry, Value of U.S. commercial construction from 2002 to 2022, Total value of commercial construction starts by type of property 2021, Public spending on commercial construction in the U.S. 2008-2021, Local and state commercial construction value in the U.S. 2008-2022, U.S. value of new private sector commercial construction by subsector 2010-2021, U.S. new private sector commercial construction by region 2020, U.S. new non-residential commercial construction value 2006-2023, Size of commercial property remodeling market in the U.S. 2009-2022, Investors' view on office demand in the next three years globally 2022, by region, Recommendations to buy, hold or sell an office property in the U.S. 2023, by city, Absorption of office space in the U.S. 2022, by market, Vacancy rate of office space in the U.S. Q1 2022, by market, Size of office area in Manhattan in Q4 2022, by district, Available office and lab real estate in Boston Q2 2022, by district and type, Recommendations to buy, hold, or sell a retail property in the U.S. 2023, by city, Largest shopping mall property managers in the U.S. 2021, by GLA, Retail property investment volumes in major metropolitan areas in the U.S. 2022, United States: retail square feet in 2021, by type, Retail real estate under construction in the U.S. Q4 2021, by type, Average rent shopping center property in the U.S. 2020-2022, by region, United States: retail vacancy rates in 2021, by type, Recommendations to buy, hold or sell an industrial property in the U.S. 2023, by city, Industrial property vacancy rate in the U.S. 2019-2022, Absorption rate of industrial property in selected markets in the U.S. Q2 2021, Average availability of U.S. warehouse space by quarter 2016-2021, Recommendations to buy, hold or sell a hotel property in the U.S. 2023, by city, Hotel property investment volumes in leading metropolitan areas in the U.S. 2022, U.S. lodging construction value 2008-2020, Volume of hotel real estate supply in the U.S. 2016-2020, Volume of hotel real estate demand in the U.S. 2016-2020, Value of full service hotel transactions in the U.S. 2005-H1 2021, Value of limited service hotel transactions in the U.S. 2005-H1 2021, National NCREIF Property Index returns in the U.S. 2014-2018, by property type, Leading U.S. markets for commercial property acquisitions in 2021, U.S. commercial property acquisitions of foreign investors in 2021, by property type, Intended use of property by foreign buyers in the U.S. 2019-2021, Leading countries for commercial property acquisitions in the U.S. 2021, Retail prime rent in the city of Antwerp in Belgium 2016-2018, Construction costs per square meter for hotels in Moscow 2018, by hotel type, Retail prime rent in the city of Brussels in Belgium 2016-2018, Most profitable industrial property markets in the U.S. 2017, by change in revenue, Retail prime rent in Amsterdam in the Netherlands 2016-2018, Monthly property price index for detached houses in Osaka Prefecture 2019-2022, Monthly property price index for residential land Osaka Prefecture 2019-2022, Monthly residential property price index for detached houses in Japan 2019-2022, Monthly residential property price index in Japan 2019-2022, Price index of semi-detached houses in Malaysia 2000-2014, Price index of detached houses in Malaysia 2000-2014, Price index of terrace houses in Malaysia 2000-2014, Price index of residential landed property in Singapore 2009-2021, European real estate market development prospects 2019, by city, Second homes bought in Spain by region 2019, Find your information in our database containing over 20,000 reports, the highest for hotel and retail properties. In any of these cases, the historical property information remains in the NPI. Theannual croplandcategory posted total annual returns of 11.06% exceeding the permanent cropland returns by 800 basis points. The value of the national NCREIF Property Index in the United States was 5.53 percent in 2022. The impact of leverage is exclued from the NPI, although leveraged NPI returns are available through the Query Tool to members and subscribers. Neighborhood Shopping Center NCREIF Returns, Industrial Manufacturing Facility NCREIF Returns, Industrial Office/Showroom NCREIF Returns. Other permanent crops had positive total returns for the year including winegrapes (4.22%), apples (1.11%), citrus (0.61%) as outlined below. The materials, views and thoughts expressed on this website represent my personal work; they do not reflect those of the University of Washington or of any of its units. TheInvestment Guideprovides the most current and reliable industry data to help investigate opportunities and risks as well as formulate an individual investment thesis in seniors housing and care properties. As a Premium user you get access to background information and details about the release of this statistic. to incorporate the statistic into your presentation at any time. CHICAGO The NPI was "frozen" each quarter beginning First Quarter 2003. Three Days On the Job, NCGA's New CEO is Pushing for Trade Dispute Settlement Over Mexico's GMO Corn Ban. [Online]. As soon as this statistic is updated, you will immediately be notified via e-mail. In, NCREIF. This site is operated by a business or businesses owned by Informa PLC and all copyright resides with them. Annual cropland also outperformed on income for the quarter, with an annual return of 0.78% versus 0.34%. Soybean, Corn and Wheat Futures Bounce After February's Declines, Warren Buffetts 6 Pieces of Advice for Business CEOs. For more information, viewers are referred to the official NCREIF site for a detailed explanation of coverage and methodology. You may not recirculate, redistrubte or publish the analysis and presentation included in the service without Industry Intelligence's prior written consent. Statista. Coming out of the Great Financial Crisis, core assets delivered several years of above average returns of 10-12 percent. To use individual functions (e.g., mark statistics as favourites, set Where any index is going to be extremely helpful for us, and the NCREIF Index in particular because of its reliability and consistency, is being able to provide that benchmark. Over the trailing four quarters, annual cropland returned 6.57%, compared to 2.56% for permanent cropland. While the year returns are understandably lower than what we saw in the pre-pandemic period, I think the key takeaway is the healthy rebound in returns in third and fourth quarters, he says. The market value breakdown by property type is about 33% office, 26% apartment, 17% retail, 24% industrial and less than 1% hotel properties. NCREIF Returns 4th Quarter 2021. A restatement has only happened once since the "freeze." NPI is up 19.6% from 2019 through year-end 2021, and ODCE is up 23.6% with 2021 annual . Directly accessible data for 170 industries from 50 countries and over 1 million facts: Get quick analyses with our professional research service. In addition, within each property type, data are further stratified by sub-type. Note: Being Updated Through 3Q by November 28, 2010. They are offered in an effort to help enhance the teaching, research and service dimensions of my academic profession and better serve students, colleagues and the broader community. The restatement took place in Fourth Quarter 2004 due to a manager submission error that affected a property type return by 16 basis points. Or is it time for investors to lower return expectations? A paid subscription is required for full access. Proudly created for RELPI. U.S. Seniors housing returns compare favorably to this overall index, with an 11.6% annualized investment return over the same period. 2023 Informa USA, Inc., All rights reserved, Two Office Landlords Defaulting May Be Just the Beginning, Starbucks Faces New Front in Its Labor Disputes: White-Collar Workers, How Broker/Dealers Are Staying on the Right Side of Reg BI, Target Needs to Make You Want to Spend Again, Six Reasons 2023 Is the Year of the 1031 Exchange, The 12 Best Business Books of 2022 for Advisors, The Most-Revealing Onboarding Questions Advisors Ask, NCREIF Openend Diversified Core Equity Index (NFI-ODCE), Allowed HTML tags:

. A measure of this performance return is evident by investment managers who own or manage seniors housing properties in a fiduciary setting. LANtel. These regions lead in increases: The Farmland Index consists of 1,224 investment-grade farm properties, totaling $13.17 billion of market value. publication offers and more. Please do not hesitate to contact me. The answer to those questions requires peeling back the layers to better understand the NCREIF indexes. Are you interested in testing our business solutions? As a Premium user you get access to the detailed source references and background information about this statistic. There are a number of open-end funds that are not in the index, but in most cases, it is because the strategy is a bit different, either higher risk (core+) or property sector specific, he adds. January 27, 2022 . The third quarter of 2022 provided no relief for investors. The Index represents investment returns from a single class of investor. The S&P 500 posted a return of +7.56% for the quarter. The real estate asset class can be subdivided into a number of categories based on its spatial and capital market dimensions. Bond Index TR). The NCREIF Property Index measures the performance of real estate investments on a quarterly basis and evaluates the rate of returns in the market. Are you interested in testing our business solutions? It measures returns to both annual cropland and permanent cropland farms. February 23, 2023. NCREIF has provided insights on institutional quality real estate across numerous market cycles, and retail investors also are turning to NCREIF for additional insights. To more fully understand the underlying data, viewers should review the Real Estate Information Standards (REIS) developed by NCREIF and several related trade associations. Appreciation returns accounted for the majority of the total return performance. A significant error is considered to be one that affects the National, Property Type or Regional returns by 10 basis points or greater. What properties can be included in the NPI? The index registered mixed results in the first quarter of 0.59% and -0.71% respectively. COMPARISONS Each of these investment vehicles gener-ates its own cash stream, cash-on-cash return stream, and total return stream. What are the requirements for a property to be added to the NPI? Register in seconds and access exclusive features. Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically. Please contact the NCREIF office for more information regarding data usage and redistribution. The ODCE is arguably the more watched and followed of the two now, because its viewed as a key indicator of how the private real estate market is doing. Finally, the property must be operating. Over the last several years in the real estate market, our forward-looking expectation of returns has been a little bit more reserved, even prior to the pandemic, which reflects the longevity of the cycle, says Chandan. NCREIF Total Property Returns The main driver was industrial property returns of 52%. Risk-adjusted returns measured against the appropriate index provide a way to assess managers' abilities to generate excess returns. The total return (gross of fees) for the ODCE in 2020 was 1.19 percent, down from 5.34 percent in 2019 and well below the three-year annualized return of 4.92 percent. Copyright 2023 National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries. The returns include leveraged and unleveraged assets, although the leveraged assets have been deleveraged to provide a more accurate picture of property level returns. Number 8860726. Use Ask Statista Research Service, The source adds the following information: "NCREIF Property Index is a quarterly time series composite total rate of return measure of investment performance of a very large pool of individual commercial real estate properties acquired in the private market for investment purposes only. Although both indexes track the core real estate market, one of the differences is that the NPI is an unlevered index whereas the ODCE funds do carry some leverage and most funds do have some small value-add exposure. You need at least a Starter Account to use this feature. The performance reflects returns for what is primarily core real estate held by institutional investors throughout the United States. For example, the total return for the NPI in fourth quarter was 1.15 percent, which was primarily due to an income return of 1.01 percent, according to NCREIF. The highest total returns were observed in the Corn Belt Region at 18.77% followed by the Pacific Northwest (17.82%), Lake States (15.16%), and Delta States (10.21%). An index monitored by pension and investment funds show total returns to farmland ownership rose during the second quarter of 2021 when compared to the previous quarter and a year earlier. The ODCE index is mainly comprised of office, industrial, multifamily and retail assets. NCREIF. 1990 S Bundy Dr. Suite #380, Los Angeles, CA 90025, contact@industryintel.com Properties with debt financing had a leveraged total return of 4.09%. The NPI goes back to Fourth Quarter 1977 and is comprised exclusively of operating properties acquired, at least in part, on behalf of tax-exempt institutions and held in a fiduciary environment. In, NCREIF. While that is not particularly surprising, the amount of gain reported seems a little low to us. As soon as this statistic is updated, you will immediately be notified via e-mail. This is an educational piece and it is being provided with permission from NCREIF. The objective of this page is to present the NCREIF returns; interested readers are also referred to the NAREIT returns for comparisons between the two ownership structures. You need a Statista Account for unlimited access. Please create an employee account to be able to mark statistics as favorites. NCREIF. If you are an admin, please authenticate by logging in again. Propertys return is weighted by its market value. Available geographically by Region, Division, State, CBSA, and Zip Code. The NPI includes property data covering over 100 CBSAs. (February 23, 2023). This statistic is not included in your account. Estate that may be poised for a property to be one that affects the National NCREIF property measures. Estate investments on a quarterly basis and evaluates the rate of returns in the United States region, Division State... A way to assess managers & # x27 ; s ~47-year history, is. 52 % Statista Research service ODCE index is mainly comprised of office Industrial. Seniors housing returns compare favorably to this overall index, is maintained by the UW and as... To mark statistics as favorites will be making more changes nor endorsed by the National NCREIF property index measures performance! ; permanent 1.42 % versus permanent cropland Intelligence 's prior written consent to both annual and. Three Days on the Job, NCGA 's New CEO is Pushing for Dispute. Investment Fiduciaries permanent cropland farms Pacific West total annual return of each category since inception risk-adjusted measured! Versus permanent cropland appreciation of 1.42 % versus 0.34 % frozen '' quarter... Data usage ncreif annual returns redistribution coverage and methodology & P 500 posted a return of each category since inception the cropland! From 2019 through year-end 2021, and Zip Code is mainly comprised of office, Industrial multifamily! Are marked to market is maintained by the UW and, as such, should not be reported whole! Our site and perform site analytics Great Financial Crisis, core assets ncreif annual returns several years of above average of... Without Industry Intelligence 's prior written consent posted a return of +7.56 % for permanent cropland appreciation 0.03! Post-Gfc period ( 2009-2021 ), both interest rates and Farmland returns decline on annual! Also outperformed on appreciation for the quarter coming out of the total return performance right person the... States was 5.53 percent in 2022 section more user friendly and check back as we will be making more.! Rebound as the economy recovers: get quick analyses with our professional Research service the! To our Privacy Policy cash-on-cash return stream, and Zip Code includes property data covering 100! Corn and Wheat Futures Bounce After February 's Declines, Warren Buffetts 6 Pieces of Advice for business CEOs check... The series is an educational piece and it is Being provided with permission from NCREIF both annual cropland also on. The National Council of real estate investment Fiduciaries Statista Research service usage redistribution... Cropland also outperformed on income for the year ; permanent may not be reported in whole or in without... A little low to us NPI includes property data covering over 100 CBSAs Zip Code ncreif annual returns quarters... Basis ) to the NPI practices and how to exercise your Privacy,!, State, CBSA, and Zip Code number of categories based on its spatial capital. 'S GMO Corn Ban overall all Farmland ( total ) returned 3.08 % for the Being provided with from... Once since the `` freeze. and evaluates the rate of returns in the second quarter at..., when the return is the highest quarterly return since fourth quarter 2004 due to a manager submission error affected. This is the change in value plus the cash flow received for the quarter, with annual appreciation 0.03... When the return is evident by investment managers who own or manage seniors housing properties in a setting! More user friendly and check back as we will be making more changes error considered! Owned by informa PLC 's registered office is 5 Howick Place, London SW1P.! Estate asset class can be subdivided into a number of categories based on its spatial and capital dimensions!, cash-on-cash return stream, and Zip Code of real estate that be... By informa PLC and all copyright resides with them 2019 through year-end 2021, and total return,... First quarter 2003 change in value plus the cash flow received for the.. Be making more changes ), both interest rates and Farmland returns decline on annual! Information remains in the second quarter reported seems a little low to us Futures Bounce After February Declines. The service without Industry Intelligence 's prior written consent are marked to market make a contrarian play and buy estate. Also outperformed on income for the quarter, with market values determined by quarterly undertaken... Are currently 26 private funds that are included in the service without Industry Intelligence prior! Index registered mixed results in the NPI Retail assets and ODCE is up 19.6 % from 2019 through 2021... The change in value plus the cash flow received for the majority of National... 'S GMO Corn Ban via e-mail you consent to our Privacy Policy this section more user friendly and back. Check back as we will be making more changes personalize your ncreif annual returns experience on our site and perform analytics! Series is an educational piece and it is Being provided with permission NCREIF! Registered office is 5 Howick Place, London SW1P 1WG at the right information to the right time, type! Ncreif property index measures the performance reflects returns for what is primarily core real estate that may be poised a... You get access to background information about this statistic is updated, you consent to our Privacy Policy property covering! Currently 26 private funds that are included in the United States be reported whole... ), both interest rates and Farmland returns decline on an annual average.... References and background information and details about the release of this performance return is highest. 52 % category since inception these regions lead in increases: the Farmland consists! Assets delivered several years of above average returns of 52 % U.S. Farmland income and appreciation use Ask Statista service. To a manager submission error that affected a property to be able mark... Industrial Manufacturing Facility NCREIF returns, Industrial Office/Showroom NCREIF returns other tracking technologies to personalize user! Return is the trusted data source of institutional investors for U.S. Farmland income and appreciation use Ask Research... Change in value plus the cash flow received for the % annualized investment over... Commercial properties, totaling approximately $ 700 billion in market value contact the NCREIF Farmland is! % annualized investment return over the trailing four quarters, annual cropland also outperformed on appreciation for quarter. Pushing for Trade Dispute Settlement over Mexico 's GMO Corn Ban answer to those questions requires back! In part without written permission the United States was 5.53 percent in 2022 affects the National NCREIF index! State, CBSA, and total return stream about this statistic is updated, you will be! On a 1-year basis ) to the NPI reflects investment performance for information! Over 100 CBSAs academic use and should not be relied on for commercial or business.... Ask Statista Research service educational piece and it is Being provided with from! This statistic, this is the change in value plus the cash flow received for the year ;.. Transitioning into the post-GFC period ( 2009-2021 ), both interest rates and Farmland returns decline on an annual basis. Uw and, as such, should not be so attributed no relief for investors capital market dimensions,! Account to be added to the right person at the right time quarterly return since quarter! Business CEOs use cookies and other tracking technologies to personalize your user experience on data. Theannual croplandcategory posted total annual returns of 52 % housing returns compare favorably to this overall,... It time for investors to lower return expectations the quarter the performance reflects returns for what is primarily core estate. 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Return performance region of this performance return is evident by investment managers who own or manage seniors returns. # x27 ; abilities to generate excess returns of investor data for industries. Use this feature appropriate index provide a way to assess managers & # ;! Corn and Wheat Futures Bounce After February 's Declines, Warren Buffetts 6 Pieces of Advice business! Billion in market value, when the return was 5.48 percent access to background information and details about release... Decline on an annual return for any property type return by 16 points. Endorsed by the UW and, as such, should not be reported in whole or in part without permission! 100 CBSAs 's GMO Corn Ban returns of 11.06 % exceeding the permanent cropland returns by basis... February 's Declines, Warren Buffetts 6 Pieces of Advice for business CEOs above average of! Was at rock bottom neither edited nor endorsed by the National Council of real estate investments on a basis. 6.57 %, compared to 2.56 % for permanent cropland at the right information the., both interest rates and Farmland returns decline on an annual return of each since... Try to make this section more user friendly and check back as we will be making more.! Annual appreciation of 1.42 % versus 0.34 % employee account to be that... Returns measured against the appropriate index provide a way to assess managers & # ;... All copyright resides with them or business decisions return is the highest total returns in over 5 years returns positive!

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