(a) Gully plug development in September 2017. Write to Justin Worland at justin.worland@time.com. Climate services provide climate, drought and desertification-related information in a way that assists decision-making by individuals and organisations. Scott-shaw, R., and C.D. Redsteer, A. Reisinger, A. Revi, D.N. Drivers such as overgrazing lead to a decrease in both plant and SOC pools (Abdalla et al. 2, 25. 20131489), adaptation could eventually fail (Kamali et al. With those concerns in mind, the environmental-justice activists, along with many other progressives, actively fought against a federal cap-and-trade system. Hughes, R.F. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA. Alba,R.,A. Bolding, andR. Ducrot, 2016: The politics of water payments and stakeholder participation in the Limpopo River Basin, Mozambique Raphalle Ducrot. 20161537). Arid Environ., 127, 1729, doi:10.1016/J.JARIDENV.2015.10.003. Maloney, A. Fuller, and D. Mitchell, 2016: Heterothermy in large mammals: Inevitable or implemented? Stevens, N., C.E.R. Improved monitoring can also help reduce many climate-sensitive infectious disease risks. Food Control, 55, 190199, doi:10.1016/J.FOODCONT.2015.02.023. Using multiple extreme-event attribution methodologies, Uhe et al. Glob. Similar results were also found from 19822007 by Huber et al. Examples of relevant services include: drought monitoring and early warning systems, often implemented by national climate and meteorological services but also encompassing regional and global systems (Pozzi et al. The net effect will largely depend on the balance between these and will vary from place to place depending on many factors. The soils in the area are shallow, low in organic matter and susceptible to erosion. Mach,M.D. An executive in Northern Ireland is based on a power-sharing arrangement designed to ensure joint governance by unionists and nationalists, the two sides in the Troubles, a 30-year conflict that ended in 1998 with the Good Friday agreement. about navigating our updated article layout. 2016257). Acad. They follow shortly after Northern Germany experienced a breakdown in its train traffic due to the shutdown in two crucial signal nods. Miao, L. et al., 2015a: Footprint of research in desertification management in China. Vlek, 2014: Socio-economic and biophysical determinants of land degradation in Vietnam: An integrated causal analysis at the national level. Kfi, S., C.L. c) Al-Ahsa oasis, Al-Ahsa Governarate, Saudi Arabia (Photo: Shijan Kaakkara). Lamers, and C. Martius, 2016: Above- and below-ground litter stocks and decay at a multi-species afforestation site on arid, saline soil. Through regulating growth form and nutrient balancing, it can maintain water content, chlorophyll fluorescence and enzyme activity at normal levels (Ibrahim 20161132; Okhovatian-Ardakani et al. 201515; Milly and Dunne 201616; Greve et al. Based on NDVI residuals, Kenya experienced persistent negative (positive) trends over 21.6% (8.9%) of the country, for the period 19922015 (Gichenje and Godinho 2018290). Front. McCabe, 2017: Land surface albedo and vegetation feedbacks enhanced the millennium drought in Southeast Australia. 8600 Rockville Pike Arid Environ., 159, 6674, doi:10.1016/J.JARIDENV.2017.11.001. For East Asia, air qualityrelated health benefits are projected to be 10 to 70 times the abatement costs in 2030.205 These large benefits are not surprising, given EPA estimates of a return of $30 for every dollar spent on reducing air pollution through the Clean Air Act.206, Further economic benefits likely will accrue from enhanced opportunities for physical fitness. Projections of increasing temperature (Abatzoglou and Kolden 20111662), and observed reductions in and earlier melting of snowpack in the Great Basin region (Harpold and Brooks 20181663; Mote et al. Environ., 181, 6979, doi:10.1016/j.agee.2013.09.014. Desertification is a process, not a state of the system, hence an absolute baseline is not required; however, every study uses a baseline defined by the start of their period of interest. Job, 2010: Development and application of aconceptual hydrologic model to predict soil salinity within modern Tunisian oases. Moscow, Russia, 357 pp. Agric. 2018320; Lahlaoi et al. Indeed, climate change and human activities over past years have influenced the desertification and dust storm control effects in China (Feng et al. 20171363; IEA 2013). Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Desertification Synthesis. Swift J., 1996: Desertification: Narratives, winners and losers. The practice of intensive and localised livestock herding, in combination with deep ploughing and unproductive barley agriculture, are the main drivers of severe land degradation and depletion of the rangeland natural resources. 20001120). Appl. Smucker, T.A. 2018685) and broader Middle East (Rashki et al. Geogr., 66, 372381, doi:10.1080/00330124.2013.821730. Rev., 23, 263275, doi:10.1111/j.1467-8268.2011.00285.x. Prince, 2016: Environmental and anthropogenic degradation of v egetation in the Sahel from 1982 to 2006. Cano,A. et al., 2018: Current knowledge and future research directions to link soil health and water conservation in the Ogallala Aquifer region. Adv. 20161554; Bekchanov et al. J. Environ. Remote Sens., 7, 54715494, doi:10.3390/rs70505471. New Polit. Chambers,J.C. et al., 2014: Resilience to stress and disturbance, and resistance to Bromus tectorumL. Invasion in cold desert shrublands of western North America. PhD Thesis, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, 165 pp. Environ. However, the potential for residual risks (those risks which remain after adaptation efforts were taken, irrespective of whether they are tolerable or not, tolerability being a subjective concept) and maladaptive outcomes is high (high confidence). Havstad, K.M., L.F. Huenneke, and W.H. In: HerreraP, DaviesJ, Baena P(eds.) Int. Horion, S., A.V. J. Groneman, A., 1968: The Soils of the Wind Erosion Control Camp Area Karapinar, Turkey. Liniger, H., R. Mektaschi Studer, P. Moll, and U. Zander, 2017: Making Sense of Research for Sustainable Land Management. Within these drylands areas, prevailing grazing and fire regimes play an important role in shaping the relative abundance of trees versus grasses (Scholes and Archer 19971030; Staver et al. Poverty is limiting both capacities to adapt to climate change and availability of financial resources to invest in sustainable land management (SLM) (high confidence). Pelagia Res. The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform onBiodiversityand Ecosystem Services (IPBES) just released four reports on biodiversity. It includes 12 core chapters and an online However, pockets of desertification were identified in Nigeria and Sudan. 20171406). For example, the use of tree belts of mixed species in northern China led to a reduction of surface wind speed and an associated reduction in soil temperature of up to 40% and an increase in soil moisture of up to 30% (Wang et al. The Great Green Wall of the Sahara and the Sahel. Atmos. The 2-litre car (per 100km driven) was a realistic development proposition, but this is now not going to happen. In arid landscapes, the potential impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 (Donohue et al. 2009393; Becerril-Pina Rocio et al. Higher access to input, output and credit markets was consistently found as a major factor in the adoption of SLM practices in a wide number of settings across the drylands (medium confidence) (Aw-Hassan et al. Pretty, 2014: All paths lead to rain: Explaining why watershed development in India does not alleviate the experience of water scarcity. Another consideration is equality. 2016). 20171648). Moreover, this assessment highlights that dryland populations are highly vulnerable to desertification and climate change (Sections 3.2 and 3.4). 20171798). Hum. Indeed, tackling the two together may be a political necessity. Ecol., 47, 567573, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2028.2008.01009.x. Smith, N.J. Dunstone, R. Eade, D.P. Namdari, S., N. Karimi, A. Sorooshian, G. Mohammadi, and S. Sehatkashani, 2018: Impacts of climate and synoptic fluctuations on dust storm activity over the Middle East. 20151626). Although CO2 fertilisation effect is enhancing vegetation productivity in drylands (high confidence), decreases in water availability have a larger effect than CO2 fertilisation in many dryland areas. Oweis, 2011: Performance and adaptation of the Vallerani mechanized water harvesting system in degraded Badia Rangelands. Strateg. Hopkins, A., and A. Del Prado, 2007: Implications of climate change for grassland in Europe: Impacts, adaptations and mitigation options: A review. Total Environ., 613614, 13761384, doi:10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2017.08.111. Abu-Zanat,M.W.,G.B. Photo: Brian Dewey. Acta Oecologica, 33, 133143, doi:10.1016/j.actao.2007.07.002. Singh, D.L. Lobell, 2010: The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of1.5C Above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty [Masson-Delmotte,V.,P. Zhai,H.O. Front. Resour. Springer International Publishing, Cham, Switzerland, pp. American Society of Agronomy Journal, 40, 694703. Fownes, andR.A. Harrington, 2004: Nitrogen limits an invasive perennial shrub in forest understory. Antwi-Agyei,P.,A.J. Samoli, E., E. Kougea, P. Kassomenos, A. Analitis, and K. Katsouyanni, 2011: Does the presence of desert dust modify the effect of PM10 on mortality in Athens, Greece? (2006)944 found that more than 2000 plant species located within dryland biodiversity hotspots could become extinct within 100 years, starting 2004 (within the Cape Floristic Region, Mediterranean Basin and southwest Australia). [Chabay,I.,M. Frick andJ. Helgeson (eds.)]. The Sahelian droughts of the 1970s1980s provided an example of how droughts could affect livestock resources and crop productivity, contributing to hunger, out-migration and suffering for millions of pastoralists (Hein and De Ridder 2006828; Molua and Lambi 2007829). The major mechanism through which climate change and desertification affect food security is through their impacts on agricultural productivity. Manage., 41, 398413, doi:10.1007/s00267-007-9035-9. Auclair,L.,P. Baudot,D. Genin,B. Romagny, andR. Simenel, 2011: Patrimony for resilience evidence from the Forest Agdal in the Moroccan High Atlas. Sand and mineral dust are frequently mobilised from sparsely vegetated drylands forming sand storms or dust storms (UNEP et al. McKenzie, D., and D. Yang, 2015: Evidence on policies to increase the development impacts of international migration. Woo, A.C. et al., 2013: Temporal variation in airborne microbial populations and microbially-derived allergens in a tropical urban landscape. This often contributes to a political and scientific atmosphere of debate. Research is required for developing methodologies that could allow for more comprehensive assessment of these indirect drought costs. 20131547; Kazbekov et al. J. Investments into education were associated with higher adoption of soil conservation measures, for example, in Tanzania (Tenge et al. 2014803). Rev. As leaders prepare to meet at the G7 summit, UNICEF is calling for US$ 1.2 billion to: It is hard to describe what it means for a child to be severely wasted, but when you meet a child who is suffering from this most lethal form of malnutrition, you understand and you never forget, said Russell. Forests,6, 26552677, doi:10.3390/f6082655. In the arid region of north-western China, Liu et al. 20111044; Scott-shaw and Morris 20151045). 201447). Kim, S.E. Acad. 2016594). Hist., 58, 121, doi:10.1016/J.EEH.2015.09.002. A recent study found that waste heat from air conditioning can warm outdoor air more than 1C, so limiting the need for air conditioning use has a direct influence on urban heat islands.185. 2018222), this approach has several key limitations: (i) the AI does not measure desertification, (ii) the impact of changes in climate on the land surface and systems is more complex than assumed by AI, and (iii) the relationship between climate change and changes in vegetation is complex due to the influence of CO2. Berger-Levrault, Paris, France, 26 pp. Curr. 20181788). There are three broad (and sometimes overlapping) policy approaches for responding to droughts (Section 7.4.8). 20151121; Mahmood et al. Massey, D.S., W.G. et al., 2017: A new Dryland development paradigm grounded in empirical analysis of Dryland systems science. 20091212; Dumenu and Obeng 20161213; Salik et al. et al., 2017: CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration across Dryland ecosystems of south-western North America. Environ. Clim. Atmos. In: IPBES (2018): Assessment Report on Land Degradation and Restoration [Montanarella, L., R. Call it something else if you must. Source: Stefan Strohmeier. Aeolian Res., 24, 5363, doi:10.1016/J.AEOLIA.2016.12.001. Clim. 20111360). (2015)407 found that 94% of northeast Brazilian drylands were susceptible to desertification. R. Soc. Smith, S.L. Over the past several centuries, more than 60% of the areas in arid and semi-arid regions were used as pastoral and agricultural lands. Wang, Y., J. Zhang, S. Tong, and E. Guo, 2017c: Monitoring the trends of aeolian desertified lands based on time-series remote sensing data in the Horqin Sandy Land, China. Earth-Science Rev., 56, 179204. J. Environ. Reports, 9, 110. Change, 68, 209224. Dr Patz reported that he served as lead author on the Midwest chapter of the third US National Climate Assessment. AMath. J. Johannsen, I. et al., 2016: Future of water supply and demand in the middle Dra Valley, Morocco, under climate and land use change. HHS Vulnerability Disclosure, Help Sci., 148, 529541, doi:10.1017/S0021859610000158. Catene, 177, 272285, doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2019.02.011. Sci. 2013492). Mammals and birds may be particularly sensitive to droughts because they rely on evaporative cooling to maintain their body temperatures within an optimal range (Hetem et al. Biomass and Bioenergy, 91, 306311, doi:10.1016/J.BIOMBIOE.2016.05.034. However, the potential for residual risks and maladaptive outcomes is high (high confidence). 2014664). Machethe, C.L. Rama Mohan Rao, andS. Manohar Rao, 2003: Watershed development: Asolution to water shortages in semi-arid India or part of the problem? 1996). Clim. Stahle, D.W. et al., 2009: Cool- and warm-season precipitation reconstructions over western New Mexico. Inappropriate storage of water in warm climes can lead to an increase in water related diseases unless managed correctly, for example, schistosomiasis and malaria (Boelee et al. Depending on the definitions applied and methodologies used in evaluation, the status and extent of desertification globally and regionally still show substantial variations (high confidence) (DOdorico et al. Investing in research and development. We have a good understanding of what happened. (ed. Bjornlund,H.,A. van Rooyen, andR. Stirzaker, 2017: Profitability and productivity barriers and opportunities in small-scale irrigation schemes. Saline and sodic soils (see Glossary) occur naturally in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid regions of the world. Ecosyst. Evan,A.T.,C. Flamant,M. Gaetani, andF. Guichard, 2016: The past, present and future of African dust. Consequently, over time, natural selection eliminated the genetic variation that would have allowed for more plasticity. et al., 2004: Smallholder Irrigation and Agricultural Development in the Olifants River Basin of Limpopo Province: Management Transfer, Productivity, Profitability and Food Security Issues. Agron. Biol., 22, 534543, doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x. Bot., 140, 7685, doi:10.1016/j. It is, without a doubt, a serious blow for mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine and it plays into each of their war narratives. (2008)416 and Le et al. Archer, N.F. Verbesselt, J., H.R., A. Zeileis, and D. Culvenor, 2010: Phenological change detection while accounting for abrupt and gradual trends in satellite image time series. Sherwood, S., and Q. Fu, 2014: A drier future? Energy Rev., 80, 11531161, doi:10.1016/J.RSER.2017. Policy, 88, 8391, doi:10.1016/J.ENVSCI.2018.06.014. To combat the effects of erosion and desertification, the government has planned to relaunch the rehabilitation of the Green Dam by incorporating new concepts related to sustainable development, and adaptation to climate change. Huang, G.E. J., 32, 353, doi:10.1071/RJ09076. Way, S.-A., 2016: Examining the links between poverty and land degradation: From blaming the poor toward recognising the rights of the poor. Aboushook,M.,M.N. Devi Prasad, 2011: Application of GIS for evaluation and design of watershed guidelines. Role of farm size and fragmentation. Richardson, D.M. Suffice it to say this is a solvable problem, but it may not be solved. J. Environ. Evan,A.T.,C. Flamant,S. Fiedler, andO. Doherty, 2014: An analysis of aeolian dust in climate models. General Directorate of Combating Desertification and Erosion, Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs, Republic of Turkey. Appl. Santos, 2010: Acute Multidimensional Poverty: ANew Index for Developing Countries. Tamou, C., R. Ripoll-Bosch, I.J.M.M. Bureau of Land Management, 2005: Vegetation Treatments on Bureau of Land Management Lands in 17 Western State. Opin. Ukrainian vessels guide grain ships in and out of port through mines that Ukrainian forces laid. 20181718), can be a viable option for some oases remains to be seen, but given their relatively low profit margins compared to currently grown oasis crops, there are reasons to doubt the economic feasibility of such proposals. Environ. Reg. IFPRI/ICARDA.Washington, D.C., USA, 44 pages. Alkire,S., andM.E. Gichenje, H., and S. Godinho, 2018: Establishing a land degradation neutrality national baseline through trend analysis of GIMMS NDVI Time-series. Agric. Chang. Glob. Sheffield, J., and E.F. Wood, 2008: Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Arid Environ., 37, 709720, doi:10.1006/jare.1997.0313. 20141328; Li et al. Sci., 99, 404406. 20141574; Yang et al. Lal, R., 1997: Degradation and resilience of soils. Chil. Their construction and associated engineering solutions will therefore benefit from careful consideration of potential desertification and climate change effects on sand storms and dune movements. Similarly, it was shown that social returns from investments in restoring degraded lands will exceed their costs within six years in many settings across drylands (Nkonya et al. Approximately 2030 Pg of SOC have been released into the atmosphere through desertification processes, for example, deforestation, overgrazing and conventional tillage (Lal 20041019). For example, some tree species selected were not well suited to local soil and climatic conditions (Zhu et al. A population of winter skate fish from the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence have a much smaller body size than other populations of winter skate along the Atlantic coast. Sustain. J. These groups have been widely credited with changing the climate conversation and helping the public understand the connections of climate to everyday life, but the environmental-justice activists have played a significant role too. Adv., 3, e1601503, doi:10.1126/sciadv.1601503. 2013205; Geist and Lambin 2004206; Kok et al. But the deal may even continue if Russia is not actively part of its operation. 2009498) with the tropical North Atlantic mixed layer cooling by over 1C (Evan et al. (2009), based on the Central Asian Countries Initiative for Land Management (CACILM), indicate that about 0.8 Mha of the irrigated croplands were subject to high degree of soil erosion in Uzbekistan. Detection of lags and the use of weighted antecedent rainfall can partially address this problem, though most studies do not do this. The costs of these water quality impacts are yet to be adequately quantified. Fried, T., L. Weissbrod, Y. Tepper, and G. Bar-Oz, 2018: A glimpse of an ancient agricultural ecosystem based on remains of micromammals in the Byzantine Negev Desert. However, not all SLM practices have high upfront costs. ICARDA Central Asia Caucasus program. Garca-Ruiz, J.M., 2010: The effects of land uses on soil erosion in Spain:A review. Globally, climate change is predicted to intensify the occurrence and severity of droughts (medium confidence) (Dai 2013906; Sheffield and Wood 2008907; Swann et al. In summary, the mixed performance of IWM projects has been linked to several factors. J. Agric. 20141124; Wicke et al. Dev., 8, 7282, doi:10.1080/17565529.2014.998604. 20131125). Int. Environ. 2017691; Goudarzi et al. Changing climate and land use have resulted in higher aridity and more droughts in some drylands, with the rising role of precipitation, wind and evaporation on desertification (Fischlin et al. The recent Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Land Degradation and Restoration Assessment report (IPBES 2018a49) is also of particular relevance. 2009485; Sun et al. 2014709). Martin-Latry K, Goumy M-P, Latry P, et al. Beckers,B.,J. Berking, andB. Schtt, 2013: Ancient water harvesting methods in the drylands of the Mediterranean and Western Asia. These effects are referred to as aerosol-radiation and aerosolcloud interactions (Boucher et al. 2016451). An overriding pan-European theme we have been witnessing here at Eurointelligence over the years is uncritical support for technocratic governance. (2018) classified almost half of all farmers in Tunisia as non-resilient to climate change, especially those relying on tree crops, which limit opportunities for short-term adaptation actions. Arid Ecosyst., 6, 241248, doi:10.1134/S2079096116040077. 20091221); in Mexico in the 1990s (Nawrotzki et al. 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Biol., 22, 28012817, doi:10.1111/gcb.13267. Acad. Breckle,S.-W., 2013: From Aral Sea to Aralkum: An Ecological Disaster or Halophytes Paradise. Science, 358, 16101614, doi:10.1126/science.aao0432. Bull. At a regional scale, Bellard et al. Livelihood diversification to collecting and selling firewood and charcoal production can exacerbate deforestation (Antwi-Agyei et al. Safriel, U.N., 2007: The assessment of global trends in land degradation. The identified relationship with the highest correlation represents the maximum amount of vegetation variability that can be explained by the precipitation, and corresponding RUE values can be calculated. 2006). Estrada, R.C. There is high confidence that many oases of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula are vulnerable to climate change. Chang.,2, 4565, doi:10.1002/wcc.81. Climate change, human movement and the promotion of mental health: what have we learnt from earlier global stressors? 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